The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) net-bought $7.4 billion from the spot foreign exchange market in February, its highest buy since March 2025, before heavily intervening by selling dollars in March as the rupee declined over 4 per cent following a spike in crude oil prices.
The recent depreciation of the rupee along with sharp fall in the country's foreign exchange (FX) reserves has sparked a debate whether stability of the exchange rate is necessary and desirable. The rupee was one of the least volatile currencies among peers for almost two years before the current downward pressure started in September after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rate.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
It underperformed peers amid volatile capital flows and uneven forex support.
If the REER is to be restored to its 2004-05 level, the rupee has to depreciate a lot, says V K
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
If net forex outflows turn out to be relatively high in the next few years, the rupee could depreciate beyond Rs 80 to a dollar by 2022. The causal reasons could, for example, include unmet expectations of FPI and FDI investors about the performance of the Indian economy, sharp rise in prices of imported oil and decrease in FX remittances. The RBI has to ask itself whether guaranteeing future rupee-dollar exchange rates on FX forward contracts is a reasonable way to use its risk-bearing capacity, says Jaimini Bhagwati.
The rupee is undervalued as compared to its peers, shows the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), even as the local currency keeps hitting new lows.
Yield-generating instruments like Infrastructure Investment Trusts (Invits), Real Estate Investment Trusts (Reits), and Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) are witnessing a surge in investor interest, contrasting with a notable slowdown in the equity primary market, which saw only one IPO in April.
The Indian rupee depreciated a modest 2.9 per cent in the first nine months of the current fiscal, performing better than other currencies like the Canadian Dollar, South Korean Won and the Brazilian Real, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Friday. The value of the Indian Rupee (INR) is market-determined, with no target or specific level or band.
Commodity markets, especially the metals, are among the most volatile segments of the Indian financial ecosystem. To traders involved in commodity trading, it is not only helpful to keep track of the daily price changes but also necessary to make informed trading decisions. Commodities like gold, silver, copper, and aluminium react to many different factors, which makes it imperative for commodity traders to watch out for metal prices every day.
'Calibrated depreciation will help rebalance external fundamentals, offset some of the tariff differentials with competitors, improve the competitiveness of domestic substitutes vis-a-vis Chinese imports, and contribute to the easing of financial conditions at a time when the inflation rate is unusually low,' explains Sajjid Z Chinoy, head of Asia Economics at JP Morgan.
Riteish Deshmukh's Shivaji may not be a flawless portrayal, but still remains engaging throughout, applauds Mayur Sanap.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
Uncertainty stemming from the US-Iran conflict has significantly impacted India's mutual fund industry, leading to a sharp decline in new fund offers (NFOs) in March, despite numerous regulatory approvals. This geopolitical tension, coupled with existing market strain and distributor hesitation, has dampened investor sentiment and affected overall inflows.
So far this year, the rupee has fallen by 4.2 per cent, the worst among its Asian peers.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
The best way for India to prepare is by preserving and strengthening the RBI's hard-won credibility, point out Rajeswari Sengupta and Vaishali Garga.
India's economy could reach $20.7 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2030 and may emerge as the second-largest economy by 2038 with $34.2 trillion GDP, an EY report said on Wednesday. The report also said that with appropriate countermeasures, India can limit the adverse impact of higher US tariffs on selected Indian imports to about 10 basis points of real GDP growth.
But weak global demand, costly imports play spoilsport
Almost a decade after India shifted to a formal inflation-targeting regime under the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a high-level panel of economists said that the flexible inflation targeting has largely worked in keeping it under control and no major revamp is required.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
'It takes time and the experience of a few market cycles to develop awareness about one's true risk appetite.'
'First-time or conservative investors should avoid narrow sectoral funds.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was a net seller of the US dollar in August, reversing its net buying position from July. During the current financial year up to August, the central bank had sold a net $1.11 billion. The RBI sold a net total of $6.49 billion worth of the foreign currency in August, according to the central bank's monthly bulletin.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
The cumulative rate hikes of 2.5 percentage points by the central bank since May 2022 negatively impacted headline inflation by 1.60 per cent, a paper by senior RBI staffers said on Monday. "Policy rate increases have anchored inflation expectations and modulated aggregate demand, generating disinflationary responses," the paper by Deputy Governor Michael Patra, Indranil Bhattacharyya, Joice John and Avnish Kumar, said.
From Rs 73k to over Rs 1.2L between January-December 2025 -- is buying gold in 2026 still sensible?
India's real estate investment trust (Reit) sector is set for robust expansion, with at least one new Reit expected to enter the market each year over the next three-five years. This growth trajectory builds on rising occupancies, surging leasing activity, and increasing investor interest.
The rupee remains overvalued against the currencies of India's trading partners, even as it hit record lows against the dollar in August and September. According to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) real effective exchange rate (REER) index, the rupee stood at 5.5 per cent above its fair value in August, down from 7.7 per cent in July. This slight easing followed fears of a US recession and the unwinding of yen carry trades, which exerted pressure on the Indian currency.
The fact that the trade and current account deficit seem to be alarmingly large (the July trade deficit was about $13 billion) adds a sense of urgency to these concerns.
India's real gross GDP grew by 7.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2004 and the rupee depreciated by less than 1 per cent in the first half of the same, the US treasury department has said in a report.
The criticism that the Reserve Bank of India was behind the curve in hiking interest rate to tame rising inflation is unfair, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Wednesday and asserted that it is difficult for any central bank to anticipate the future more accurately. Earlier this month, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the central bank's rate-setting panel, surprised the markets with a 40 basis points hike in repo rate in an off-cycle policy meeting. It was also the first rate hike after August 2018, amid spiralling inflation.
We propose an expert group be set up to form a national strategy on digital fraud. This group would bring together skills in financial regulation, security economics, cyber defence, and public communications, and an understanding of the Indian financial and security systems. It should lay the foundations of a coordinated approach by the Indian State in fighting digital fraud, suggest Ajay Shah and Nandkumar Saravade.
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