The recent depreciation of the rupee along with sharp fall in the country's foreign exchange (FX) reserves has sparked a debate whether stability of the exchange rate is necessary and desirable. The rupee was one of the least volatile currencies among peers for almost two years before the current downward pressure started in September after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rate.
It underperformed peers amid volatile capital flows and uneven forex support.
If the REER is to be restored to its 2004-05 level, the rupee has to depreciate a lot, says V K
'Calibrated depreciation will help rebalance external fundamentals, offset some of the tariff differentials with competitors, improve the competitiveness of domestic substitutes vis-a-vis Chinese imports, and contribute to the easing of financial conditions at a time when the inflation rate is unusually low,' explains Sajjid Z Chinoy, head of Asia Economics at JP Morgan.
The rupee is undervalued as compared to its peers, shows the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), even as the local currency keeps hitting new lows.
If net forex outflows turn out to be relatively high in the next few years, the rupee could depreciate beyond Rs 80 to a dollar by 2022. The causal reasons could, for example, include unmet expectations of FPI and FDI investors about the performance of the Indian economy, sharp rise in prices of imported oil and decrease in FX remittances. The RBI has to ask itself whether guaranteeing future rupee-dollar exchange rates on FX forward contracts is a reasonable way to use its risk-bearing capacity, says Jaimini Bhagwati.
The Indian rupee depreciated a modest 2.9 per cent in the first nine months of the current fiscal, performing better than other currencies like the Canadian Dollar, South Korean Won and the Brazilian Real, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Friday. The value of the Indian Rupee (INR) is market-determined, with no target or specific level or band.
So far this year, the rupee has fallen by 4.2 per cent, the worst among its Asian peers.
The best way for India to prepare is by preserving and strengthening the RBI's hard-won credibility, point out Rajeswari Sengupta and Vaishali Garga.
India's economy could reach $20.7 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2030 and may emerge as the second-largest economy by 2038 with $34.2 trillion GDP, an EY report said on Wednesday. The report also said that with appropriate countermeasures, India can limit the adverse impact of higher US tariffs on selected Indian imports to about 10 basis points of real GDP growth.
Almost a decade after India shifted to a formal inflation-targeting regime under the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a high-level panel of economists said that the flexible inflation targeting has largely worked in keeping it under control and no major revamp is required.
'It takes time and the experience of a few market cycles to develop awareness about one's true risk appetite.'
'First-time or conservative investors should avoid narrow sectoral funds.'
From Rs 73k to over Rs 1.2L between January-December 2025 -- is buying gold in 2026 still sensible?
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
But weak global demand, costly imports play spoilsport
India's real estate investment trust (Reit) sector is set for robust expansion, with at least one new Reit expected to enter the market each year over the next three-five years. This growth trajectory builds on rising occupancies, surging leasing activity, and increasing investor interest.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was a net seller of the US dollar in August, reversing its net buying position from July. During the current financial year up to August, the central bank had sold a net $1.11 billion. The RBI sold a net total of $6.49 billion worth of the foreign currency in August, according to the central bank's monthly bulletin.
The cumulative rate hikes of 2.5 percentage points by the central bank since May 2022 negatively impacted headline inflation by 1.60 per cent, a paper by senior RBI staffers said on Monday. "Policy rate increases have anchored inflation expectations and modulated aggregate demand, generating disinflationary responses," the paper by Deputy Governor Michael Patra, Indranil Bhattacharyya, Joice John and Avnish Kumar, said.
The rupee remains overvalued against the currencies of India's trading partners, even as it hit record lows against the dollar in August and September. According to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) real effective exchange rate (REER) index, the rupee stood at 5.5 per cent above its fair value in August, down from 7.7 per cent in July. This slight easing followed fears of a US recession and the unwinding of yen carry trades, which exerted pressure on the Indian currency.
We propose an expert group be set up to form a national strategy on digital fraud. This group would bring together skills in financial regulation, security economics, cyber defence, and public communications, and an understanding of the Indian financial and security systems. It should lay the foundations of a coordinated approach by the Indian State in fighting digital fraud, suggest Ajay Shah and Nandkumar Saravade.
The fact that the trade and current account deficit seem to be alarmingly large (the July trade deficit was about $13 billion) adds a sense of urgency to these concerns.
India's real gross GDP grew by 7.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2004 and the rupee depreciated by less than 1 per cent in the first half of the same, the US treasury department has said in a report.
The criticism that the Reserve Bank of India was behind the curve in hiking interest rate to tame rising inflation is unfair, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Wednesday and asserted that it is difficult for any central bank to anticipate the future more accurately. Earlier this month, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the central bank's rate-setting panel, surprised the markets with a 40 basis points hike in repo rate in an off-cycle policy meeting. It was also the first rate hike after August 2018, amid spiralling inflation.
The latest balance of payments data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week indicate that the CAD in fiscal 2010-11 could be anywhere between 3.5 and 4.0 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
Could plumb to 57 against the US dollar if macro dynamics continue to weaken.
The Indian currency on Friday traded at 62.48, down 41 paise against the US dollar at 1645 hours.
India's flexible (flex) office segment, having breached pre-pandemic levels, is thriving as corporates, startups, multinational corporations, and global capability centres (GCCs) expand in India, seeking low-capital yet Grade A plug-and-play facilities. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, the flex office segment continued to grow, with flex space leasing rising by 22 per cent to 2.2 million square feet (msf), according to Colliers.
The report noted that export volumes are likely to remain sluggish.
If Beijing succeeds in this multipronged effort to challenge the current dominant power, it will have not just economic but political and security consequences. There is no let-up in the South China Sea nor any de-escalation moves on the India-China border. This portends to ominous signalling from Beijing, observes China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
In a recent article, Rajan has ridiculed critics of the exchange rate policy.
Without naming India, S&P said it expects that in regions where inflation already exceeds targets, or which are vulnerable to capital flight, central banks will be forced to raise interest rates.
'The reform agenda is progressing in the right direction'.
The rupee was overvalued by 12.21 per cent as on April 18, 2007, according to the Reserve Bank of India. The rupee, which was Rs 41.98 per dollar on April 18, surged further to close at a nine-year high of 41.67/68 on Monday.
A strong currency helps in fighting some of the import-led inflation.
The recent weakness of the rupee has been due to yuan's devaluation.
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